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同一批选民,换一种计票方式会选出谁?

从一名虚构选民的第二选择开始,走到选区、席位和全国票数。逐步圈出每次统计保留了哪些信息,以及结果还允许你问什么。

本文的问题 · 5
  1. 同样说「多数」,先数谁拿得到票
  2. 数完选票以后,谁还得同意一项承诺才能兑现?
  3. 第一名得了一票,第二名能不能留下痕迹?
  4. 票怎么转,与选区怎么画,是两次不同的决定
  5. 全国多拿一万票,为什么可能一席都没增加?

同样说「多数」,先数谁拿得到票

在动画的三席选区里,让选民填写下一顺位,可以改变选票怎样转移。伦敦金融城的例子把问题倒退一步:哪些居民和工作人员能够拿到票?留着相同的计票公式,改变具备资格的人,结果的含义已经不同。比较两次投票时,既要标记从哪张票到哪个席位,也要标记谁从一开始就在计数范围以外。

原文与时间戳 · 4
Citizens rank their
The Voting System That's Actually Too Good for Politicians to Allow · ▶ 6:03–6:04
If no winner, last place is eliminated
The Voting System That's Actually Too Good for Politicians to Allow · ▶ 6:10–6:13
The companies then give their votes to select employees
Most Cities Got More Democratic. This One Didn't. · ▶ 1:35–1:39
with the remaining 1/4th from residents
Most Cities Got More Democratic. This One Didn't. · ▶ 1:27–1:29

数完选票以后,谁还得同意一项承诺才能兑现?

计票规则可以决定谁得到席位,却还没告诉我们谁能让道路、税收或公共服务上的命令变成行动。Grey 让读者在赢得职位的人旁边,再画上落实决定所需的人,并标出维持合作的资源来自哪里。这个模型的可检验之处,在于它把胜选与执行分开了:若职位相同、关键合作者改变了,先前可兑现的承诺还剩下哪些?

原文与时间戳 · 2
The individuals needed to make the necessary things happen
Try to Rule Fairly and You'll Be Overthrown · ▶ 1:11–1:16
Control the treasure.
Try to Rule Fairly and You'll Be Overthrown · ▶ 2:11–2:13

第一名得了一票,第二名能不能留下痕迹?

在 Grey 的动物王国例子里,七名候选人分票,豹只要比任何一个对手多一点票就赢了。把投给其他候选人的票加起来,能说明多数没有把豹选作第一名,却看不出这些人会共同支持谁。换成顺位选票,松鼠可以把龟排第一、猫头鹰排第二。多出来的信息是这名选民的后续偏好;光靠旧票数无法事后补齐。两段采用的是同一作者的虚构王国,便于把选民设定固定下来。

原文与时间戳 · 2
80% -- wanted someone else as king
Why Your Vote Doesn't Count · ▶ 1:21–1:26
Turtle as his first choice, Owl as his second
The Voting System That Should Replace Every Election · ▶ 1:25–1:29

票怎么转,与选区怎么画,是两次不同的决定

按顺位计票时,最低票者退出后,先前支持者的票可能移给尚在竞选的下一顺位。现在先不改票,而把同一批人重新划进两个选区。Grey 的另一例子显示,即使每个人都维持原来的选择,胜出的席位也可能改变。拿两张纸分别试一次,只改淘汰顺序或只改分组;切勿把两次试验混作一项改革的结果。

原文与时间戳 · 2
whoever decides where the lines are drawn has enormous influence
Why Your Vote Doesn't Count · ▶ 4:31–4:38
least popular candidate is eliminated after each round
The Voting System That Should Replace Every Election · ▶ 2:08–2:11

全国多拿一万票,为什么可能一席都没增加?

英国大选的例子先把票分进选区,每区产生一名议员。在已经领先很多的选区再添票,不会因此增加一个席位。Grey 另用美国选举人团构造一个极端情形:在某些州窄胜,其他州的大幅落后不按全国净票逐一抵消。这两段均来自 Grey,分别用来检查两套汇总规则。面对一个全国百分比,先重复从选票到赢家之间的每次分组。

原文与时间戳 · 4
they're a bunch of local elections.
The UK Election Results Were the Worst in History · ▶ 0:40–0:45
each of which elects one member of parliament
The UK Election Results Were the Worst in History · ▶ 0:45–0:49
win the votes of the people who count the most
You Can Win the Presidency With 22% of the Vote · ▶ 4:28–4:32
because it's a winner take all system
You Can Win the Presidency With 22% of the Vote · ▶ 4:41–4:45

读完再想一步

画六个选民,给每人写出第一和第二选择。先分别数首选,再按两个选区产生赢家。两次结果有何区别?找出一条要看其余三人喜好才能回答的问题。